Record events attribution in climate studies

Within the statistical climatology literature, inferring contributions of potential causes with regard to climate change has become a recurrent research theme during this last decade. In particular, disentangling human induced (anthropogenic) forcings from natural represents nontrivial task, especially when focal point moves away mean behaviors and goes towards extreme events high societal impacts. Most studies found in field event attributions (EEA) rely on value theory. Under theoretical umbrella, it is often assumed that, for given location, temporal changes extremes can be detected both location scale parameters an distribution, while its shape parameter remains unchanged over time. This assumption constant tail between so-called factual world (all forcings) counterfactual one (without anthropogenic forcing) challenged due fact that important forcing could impact large atmospheric oceanic circulation patterns, consequently, latter reshape full including drives extremal behavior. article, we study how allowing different worlds affect analysis records. extend work Naveau et al. which case was not treated. We also add properties inferential results about records EEA propose procedure model validation. A simulation our approach detailed. Our method applied yearly maxima daily near-surface air temperature issued numerical CNRM-CM6-1 Météo-France.